Showing posts with label investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label investing. Show all posts

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Capitalism






Nearly 4,000 books have been written about Abraham Lincoln, without a doubt the most popular President of the United States. He said, “all I am, or ever hope to be, I owe to my mother.” When I was young, my mother, dismayed her entire life from her lack of formal education, so anxious for her children to have the best education. The county book-mobile had come into the community. Once a week, the book-mobile filled with luscious books and a real nice librarian and driver anxious to assist the children of the farm community with reading would stop at my cousin's country store at the country crossroads. My mother would take my sister and I to the book-mobile where we would select books to read during the week.

Many books had a great effect on my life, perhaps the one that affected my young mind the most was called T-model Tommy, a book written by Stephen Meader in 1938. The book told the story of a 17-year old boy, born in poverty in New Jersey who fixed up an old model-T truck and began a hauling business which through hard-work prospered into a transport business of many trucks. The writer, the author, Stephen Meader wrote many stories about young men developing independent businesses in the face of adversity.

The greatest failure of this democratic republic, a nation built on capitalism, it's failure to properly teach young people about capitalism. I have found in my life that very few young people, particularly young men, know anything about capitalism, investing, mortgages, business debt, etc. This makes the liberal sociologists happy because they want this country to become communist anyways, everyone depending on the government. I truly believe the answer to the drop out rate, now approaching 1/3 in the 21st century, would be cured if young men were more challenged in accomplishment through capitalism.

Many come from single family homes, know nothing except welfare, the stagnation of sitting around doing nothing. In the trash can of a democratic republic, many have not learned yet that liberalism keeps you poor and that poor people are easy to control. Among my many blessings, life, liberty, Christian ancestry, parents who knew the honor of work, accomplishment. They knew that in order to have money, the pride of doing something themselves, you sell your services or a product. Time is dollars, and you invest dollars, you make money with money, you have that blessed assurance of responsibility, the honor, pride and dignity of work. My father farmed during the week, crops which he sold for cash. On weekends, he worked as a barber, money which mostly took care of the family needs, during the winter he worked construction, building houses. Along with this, he raised and sold livestock, my mother sold milk, butter, and eggs, garden products. There was no money to waste on frivolous things, but we were able to go to the doctor, were better dressed, had a better home, well-furnished, better car, better money for college. This happened because of the Christian desire to live and give, living productive lives, giving every place possible.

So, having worked my way through eight years of university educations, commissioned as an army medical officer, I returned almost totally blind. Many things influenced my thinking during those crucial times, one was that book I read as a child, T-model Tommy. I was fortunate enough to practice for a while with limited vision, has an assistant standing over me to make sure I did everything correctly. But, the time came that I had to give it all up.

I started out upstairs, over a shoe store, the space had been used by a doctor at least 50 years previously. The owner of the shoe store, Mr. Parrot, said, “doctor, I will give you a five year lease on that space for $25 a month if you are willing to fix it up for your use. I had some construction work done, but wallpaper, painting etc. friends helped me do it all.” I had saved enough money from the military to buy my essential equipment. It was from this meager strategic start that I built a very large private practice. After the initial office I move into a much better location, more appropriate for my use. Because so much of my practice was built strictly on my personality, my knowledge, it was an excellent opportunity for a younger man to practice with me. The truth is that most young doctors want everything at once, did not want to go through the hard-planned program, the heart-ache of work. Most think they are too important, too great for anything.

The time came, just as in driving, just as in everything else involving eye sight, I had to quit, knowing full well, for a very long time, that the day would come. I started with the first dollar, over and above frugal living expenses, taxes and necessities, investing one-half of what was left in real estate, the other half in the stock market. Like T-model Tommy, I started with one duplex residence, I lived on one side, rented the other side, letting that side pay for the building, then I bought a second duplex, one side making payment on the building. Then, I bought another duplex, and before long, I owned 12 buildings.

Then, I started buying commercial property, office buildings, retail space, even night-club buildings. Then, I bought beach property, five duplexes on the beach, furnished, which I rented by the week to vacationers, and rented monthly to students and teachers. Any residence on the beach which came up for sale I would have someone go with me and describe it to me. You should see me measure a room with my white cane, then later, tell helpers how I want it refurbished and decorated. I found that if I decorated and furnished a house, I could sell it at a much greater profit.

Through my military contacts, I knew the owner of a furniture store very well. He could still tell you how this man would come in and buy furniture from him, walking around the store, bargaining, most of the time I could visualize what I had purchased. At public auctions, second-hand stores, thrift-shops I bought pictures and prints, draperies and carpets, over and over, someone would say, “who decorated this house?” Evidently I did a decent job, because they always sold, or rented well. I bought commercial property, depending on two strategic convictions: geography, and if the surrounding property would make mine worth more. It is like a doctor's office, a store, even friends, people want to go to a place which will flatter them, make them look better. The harder I worked, the more I prospered, whether cleaning behind dirty people who had rented my property, or books about investing in the stock market.

I have given instruction to at least 1,000 people, if you ever find a business, free of aggravation, free of hard-work, free of risk, please let me know what it is, I want to get into that business. In other commentaries, I have given the Morris rules for business, for lifestyle, for depending on the Christian promise, it is a matter of mindset. I hear about conservation, political conservatives, most politicians, including some very good republicans, know nothing about conservation, conservatives. God, and God alone gives you the blessing, even when physically blind. Blessed is the man whose strength is in thee; in whose heart are the ways of them. (Psalm 84:5)

Friday, June 18, 2010

Investments




Known as “Oklahoma's favorite son”, humorist, actor Will Rogers, who died in 1935 once said, “I am more interested in getting my investment returned than getting a return on my investment.”

Americans have a reputation for hard work and shrewd investing. Most of us limit our spending, live frugally, in order to invest with the prospects of living comfortably with a percentage returns of our investments. You make money with money through the power of compound interest, but more important than earning interest, (Today, most bank deposits less than 1%), is the making of money by trading in the securities market, buying and selling real estate, or buy owning and renting commercial or other real estate in the buildings market. However you do it: gold, silver, platinum, land, or buildings, most investors seek a profit, no one invests his hard earned money, given the risk involved, in order to lose money.

The making of money in any investment becomes more difficult every passing day. The stock market is totally manipulated, the banking industry controls the real estate and construction market. Increases in taxation, insurance rates, maintenance on property, prohibits the financial return of rentals, just as the small farmer has been pushed out as the mega-conglomerate, corporate agriculture machines have taken over. So bigness has taken over in the rental market, no longer can the small operator supplement his income by renting out apartments, houses, or commercial buildings. The politicians have your number, government makes nothing, only has the power to tax, they have already sent out their appraisers. All your federal, state, county municipal government must do is slowly, but surely increase your rate of taxation, built upon the appraised value.

At one time, I could depend on a getting a decent percentage returned on rental real estate, in spite of the risks involved. Today, increased regulation, licenses or permits for everything, increased insurance rates, increased maintenance costs, one can barely survive in the real estate market.

Fifty years ago, when the ticker tape was used, when brokers purchased companies not groups. When securities markets moved a few points at a time, (recently in 15 minutes, the market went down 1000 points, back up 500 points, almost everyday up or down several hundred points) one could predict after careful study, strategy in investing. In bad times, good times, unexpected times, you can depends on making a reasonable return in the securities markets. Today, you can get wiped overnight.

In 1987, President Reagan established, with Treasury Department, safeguards against plunges. This is all a matter of history, with manipulation Wall Street-ers have learned to control the market through options. By the time the small investor learns what is going on, the big money has been made. Goldman-Sachs sold most of their British Petroleum stock before “the leak”!

Hearings before congressional committees shows how corrupt the investment market has become. Now, along with the international bankers, the Bilderbergers, the European dilemma, we must face the inevitable nationalizing of all American industry under the communist-capitalist Mr. Obama and his ilk. With his bailouts, sell-outs, cop-outs, seemingly with little despair from the Congress or the public. America has taken over the financial community, the insurance community, the automobile manufacturing community, now, he has his eyes set on the oil corporations. Jesse Jackson suggested it long ago, the takeover of all retirement funds...those of industry, teachers, government workers etc. this is the way it is done in communist countries. Why should one person depend on social security, and another live high off a large retirement fund. Already, we hear of the large retirement checks received by just ordinary workers: the retired head of local hospital 202,000 per year, the retired head of county liquor operation 157,000 per year, most retired educators, superintendents, principals over 100,000 per year. Even chiefs of police and fire departments retire with 6 figure annual checks. Billion of dollars in retirement stashes are just waiting for federal government takeover.

One of my friends, blind from birth, never made very much money, even though she worked her entire life as a typist. The average social security check is $1007, hers was about $793. She owned her own house, and lived her last years through equity in her house. Impossible to live on just social security, paying for health, and health-care, there was barely enough left for burial.

Most 100% disabled veterans, get just enough to survive...less than the amount provided to an ROTC student a local college. But, why should he complain, he did not give his all for money.

My mother's parents lived in the house in which her father and grandfather were born, the house having survived the Civil war. During WW2, my grandparent's only son was in combat in the South Pacific. I will never forget, these two old people, my grandfather's only brother, one year younger than he, along with two hired old men tried to keep the farm going. My mother's sisters were all away working, one at the pentagon, all sending home money to pay taxes on the farm. They, like my mother, who worked hard her entire life, never received one penny of social security, even though they had paid taxes for many years. There is much inequity involved in investing, not only your funds, but your time.

Your best investment, an investment which will never fail, giving of your means to God. You can give without loving, but you can not love without giving. You cannot out give God. When Noah came out of the Ark, the first thing he did was make an offering to God. When Moses came down the mountain after spending 40 days and nights with God, the first thing he did was make an offering to God. When the 50,000 first Jewish returnees from captivity in Babylon reached Jerusalem, the first thing they did was make an offering to God. The apostle Paul said to give cheerfully to God.
We mere human mortals are ninety-three million miles away from the surface of the Sun. Wherever you are on Earth, you depend on the power of the Sun. In Asia, many places, I saw mortals, human beings, carrying large baskets of food to temples where monkeys were worshiped. The same son grew this food, warmed these bodies, tragic, these people even today know nothing of the power of God and making offerings to him, a true investment.

Friday, January 8, 2010

Think and Grow Rich




One of the best-selling books of all time, Think and Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, an American author who was one of the earliest authors of the modern genre of “personal-success” literature. Hill's works examined the power of personal beliefs, and the role they play in personal success. "What the mind of man can conceive and believe, it can achieve" is one of Hill's hallmark expressions. The turning point in the writing career of Napoleon Hill is considered to have occurred in 1908 with his assignment, as part of a series of articles about famous men, to interview billionaire industrialist Andrew Carnegie, who at the time was one of the most powerful men in the world. Hill discovered that Carnegie believed that the process of success could be elaborated in a simple formula that could be duplicated by the average person. Impressed with Hill, Carnegie commissioned him (without pay and only offering to provide him with letters of reference) to interview over 500 successful men and women, many of them millionaires, in order to discover and publish this formula for success. As a result of Napoleon's studies via Carnegie's introductions, the Philosophy of Achievement was offered as a formula for rags-to-riches success by Hill and Carnegie, published initially in 1928 as a study course called, The Law of Success. The Achievement formula was detailed further and published in home-study courses, including the seventeen-volume "Mental Dynamite" series in 1941.

For the disabled, of interest is the fact that Hill had a disabled son; Hill's second son, Blair, was born without any visible sign of ears. Hill was determined that his son would not view himself as handicapped. Early on, Hill and his wife worked with Blair to encourage him to "adapt" himself to the "benefit" that he acquired at birth. Mr. and Mrs. Hill never spoke of Blair's condition as a handicapping one. To the Hills' credit, Blair went on to graduate from college and became a successful merchant and civic leader. He began using a hearing aid only during his last year in college and this device was said to enable him to have near normal hearing. As a blind person, one of the most thrilling aspects of his book was the fact that early in his son's life, Hill determined he could communicate with his son by vibrations. I determined, that if a deaf person could learn through vibrations, a blind person could learn by hearing. This book had such an influence on my life, that I offered to pay many young men $10 to read it. Other than buying the books, I never paid one $10 because not one of these lazy people ever came back and told me they had read the book. Such is the lackadaisical don't care attitude of most young people in modern America.


Henrietta "Hetty" Howland Robinson Green (November 21, 1834 – July 3, 1916) worked as a cleaning woman on Wall Street. She heard stock brokers talk about various stocks and she became a specialist in listening and buying stocks with her meager income. By living frugally, and investing wisely, at a time in history when it was very difficult to amass a fortune, she became one of the country's wealthiest women. There are many tales about her stinginess, but it all comes to this, as can be testified to by your writer, you can not invest what you have spent. At the time of her death, her estimated net worth was around $100 – $200 million (or $1.9 – $3.8 billion in 2006 dollars).

Financial security is a mindset. I do not know anyone of wealth with whom it is not a matter of thinking. There are wealthy people who do not have the mindset, they got it the easy way, they inherited it. Those who inherit great wealth usually do not hold on to it. Most people who become wealthy, do it the hard way, they work for it and it is hard work! But, most of all, it is a mindset.

I want to disclose to you a matter which I have written and lectured about many times. The way a person can become wealthy; first of all, you are an American, at least until recently, a land of opportunity, where you can do anything you wish to do and there is no limit to how much you can make, if you are willing to work for it. If you do not have the mindset for work and saving, you are wasting your time. You can make a good living with your hands, and many people do, but if you are going to make money it is a constant mindset of self-control, conservativeness, and hard work; peppered with much aggravation from a large part of the population that 'don't care' and pick pocket service people predominately, who just want to rip you off at least one time. Most of all, it takes a Christian faith in an all-mighty God, who is in partnership with you, because God knows you are proving (Malachi 3) that you are working for Him as well as yourself.

1.Mindset- you must accept the fact that no matter how poor your background, you are not stuck where you start. Perhaps, because my parents, grandparents were conservative, frugal in their lifestyle, hard-working, patriots giving a large percentage of their income to God's work, I was frugal as a child. In college, I had the nickname of “Iron Pockets” because I went through 8 years of university education, which I paid, myself, living on $1 a day. I still, to this day, a multi-millionaire, do not spend much more than that on myself. I am a firm believer that one should deny self. (Mark 8:34-35 ) There is nothing that makes me sicker than a fat preacher, nothing more disgusting than a supposed “servant of God” (TV preachers, etc) with their expensive haircuts, expensive suits, flashing jewelry, and lifestyles of the 'rich and famous'. My only child, my son, a foreign missionary, told me about having lunch with an employee of the Bennie Hinn ministries, at which time he was told of the extravagance of that group. If a church or ministry, expects to get one dime from me, I don't expect them to live any better than I do. I give away a large part of my income, but I will assure you, that if I learn of waste and exorbitance or extravagance or lack of discipline, which I exercise in my own life and living, they need not expect anything else from me. I do not have this ability for restriction with the government, but it should sicken any tax-paying citizen to hear of corruption and extravagance in government. The problem is, only about 50% kf citizens pay taxes. So, the 50% who do not pay taxes elect to office those politicians who have no discipline in their lives and they enjoy spending YOUR money. In fact, I have learned, that most conservative politicians know nothing of TRUE conservation. George W. Bush, who claimed to be a compassionate conservative, born into one of the wealthiest families in the country, in my opinion, was neither conservative or Christian.
2.Day-Sheet- If you go to my bedroom right now, as in every day of my life, you will find a loose leaf notebook where, on every day of the year, I list my expenditures for that day. At the end of the year, I can use these expenditures for tax purposes by keeping them in this manner. But, the important thing, is to list your expenses each day. There is no other way, on Earth, whereby you can discipline yourself about spending. The only money you have to invest, is what you have not spent. Some people have nothing to invest because they have spent it all! It takes money to make money, and only what you have invested makes money; whether real estate, securities, antiques, collectibles, etc. You only make money on things you can sell for a profit. Be careful with expendables. Name brands sell for more because of their advertising. Credit cards are a poison, stay away from them.
3.Tithing- The last book in the Old Testament is the Book of Malachi. Malachi means 'messenger' and the message is that we should give; that we 'rob God if we do not give' (Malachi 3:8-12) Many believe in giving the tenth, as did the children of Israel, but the Jewish people also gave other worship offerings such as 'first fruits'. The tithe is not specific in the New Covenant. It can be used as a starting point for giving because, if the Jewish people, gave a tithe under law, how much more we should give under grace! It is important to give as we have been prospered (1 Corinthians 16:2) and remember, God loves a cheerful giver (2 Corinthians 9:7) YOU CAN NOT OUT GIVE GOD! Give and it shall be given to you (Luke 6:38)
4.Lifestyle- I become deathly ill when I hear of the extravagance involved in the living of some people. Opulence and extravagance are like mediocrity; mental abuse against yourself. I have traveled the world, passport stamped in 157 countries, because I believe God wanted me to see how people live all over the world. Most of the poverty of the world is below the 30th parallel, countries in Africa, Latin America, Asia etc. Once you have seen the poverty of these places, the decadence of spending and spreeing people, particularly Americans, the most blessed country on earth, makes me very ill. I never go to a restaurant where a meal costs over $10. I do not own a shirt that cost over 25 cents. I do not have one article of clothing not bought second hand in a thrift store. There is not one piece of furniture in my house not bought second hand. I do not blame anyone for not living as frugally as I do. But one can not have the Holy Spirit of God in his heart, have seen the needs and poverty of most of the citizens of this earth and spoil himself with extravagance. Honesty in dealing with God, and with your neighbors, is expected. More importantly, is honesty in dealing with yourself. Your conscience will not allow you to see needs in the world and still be extravagant with yourself. Only YOU can make that decision. I firmly believe in making every dollar possible, honestly, morally, lawfully. I firmly believe in paying your taxes, because in spite of the deception and corruption of government, we must have government; with the streets, law enforcement, and other things government is responsible for. I firmly believe in paying people to do things for me that I can not do for myself. I believe God holds us responsible for our citizenship as well as for our Christian discipleship.
5.Investing- Your best investment is in yourself. Have the mental ability to do the best you can with what you have. There is nothing as wasted as a wasted mind. Every child is due an education at the expense of the public. When I graduated from high school, there were no grants, no programs, no counselors, very few scholarships; only those elitist families with political pull got a chance at a military academy, only those elitist families with political pull, or alumni connections, got a chance at a scholarship. Children from the poor classes, if fortunate enough to enter college, had a working experience. In my case, for 8 years, and more so through the summer months, I worked at night and went to school during the day. When I graduated at 2 universities, I had paid my way and owed nothing. Today, most students, even those with grants and scholarships, have large student loans; particularly professionals such as doctors and dentists. Denial and self-discipline are good learning tools for future success. Character determines destination. The best character builder is hunger. It still sickens me to see college students spending and spreeing; I can well remember the convertibles, the cashmere sweaters, the fraternity pins, the partying that went on night and day at UNC-Chapel Hill. It was these popular, elitist, students who were in student government (because they could pay for the advertising and did not have to work) who were members of the elitist clubs and fraternities, who were the “pets” of the faculty and the administration. One of my friends was the son of a judge, both parents were alumni of the university, and he got special attention. Another friend, was the son of a state legislator, the university had a special administration official to make sure he had no problems. I could recite other such inequities, but just think of the inequity, at that time, of a bright young student not being able to attend his state university simply because his skin color was black. Investing with friendship, particularly in high school and college years, is very important. Mark Twain said, “Friendships should be kept in repair.” Continue to stay in contact with your friends. The bond of friendship made with people in youth, like the bond between parents and children, is a great investment and many of us discover that too late. Another investment, which will pay marvelous dividends, is the investment in good health. Many spend their health obtaining wealth and then it becomes necessary to spend their wealth trying to regain their health. From college until this very day, I have saved 50 cents out of every dollar I have made for investment. I could save more for investing, if I did not pay so much in tax and if I did not give away as much as I do for God's work. Of this 50 cents, I invest 25 cents in real estate and 25 cents in securities. At present, I have about the same amount in securities as in real estate, but with the present economic climate, everything is worth less.

The Christian, I'm not talking about a pretender, the born again believer in Jesus Christ, baptized, serving, knows that Christ came that we might have life and have it more abundantly (John 10:10) We will have troubles and tribulations, like everyone else. Satan will work us over. We will have automobile problems, A/C problems, health problems, even family problems, like everyone else. Don't cheat yourself. God has given us one instruction, to trust him. “Trust in the LORD with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding; in all your ways acknowledge him, and he will make your paths straight. (Proverbs 3:5-6) For 40 years I have thought, as a totally disabled person, that God would 'cut me some slack' but I seem to have more problems than anyone else and for a blind person, everything is a problem.

“Through it all,
through it all,
I've learned to trust in Jesus,
I've learned to trust in God.

Through it all,
through it all,
I've learned to depend upon His Word.”

-Chorus of Through it All, Andre Crouch

Saturday, January 2, 2010

NY Times Article

#432

NY Times Article

For Savers, It Was Hardly a Lost Decade
By RON LIEBER
Published: January 1, 2010

It was the age of zeroes, the epoch of naughts, an era when we started with something and added just about nothing.
At least that’s what stock market commentators have been gravely telling us for at least a year. The 2000s, they argue, was a lost decade. And at first glance, they appear to have gotten it exactly right.
If you invested $100,000 on Jan. 1, 2000, in the Vanguard index fund that tracks the Standard & Poor’s 500, you would have ended up with $89,072 by mid-December of 2009. Adjust that for inflation by putting it in January 2000 dollars and you’re left with $69,114.
But that is not how most real people invest. They don’t pour everything they have into just one type of asset and then add nothing to it for 10 years. Instead, they buy stocks of all sorts, and bonds and perhaps other things, too. And many millions of them dutifully add more money regularly, usually into a retirement account that they won’t touch for longer than a decade.
For those people, it was not a lost decade at all. Even those who started with a low six-figure balance could have doubled their total savings in the last 10 years.
How? Consider a few decade-long scenarios that I asked Vanguard to run using its low-cost index mutual funds. In each, we assumed that the money was in a tax-deferred account and that the account owner reinvested any dividends.
First of all, even people who put all of their money in stocks rarely invest only in the big American names that make up the S.& P. 500.
So say you put $50,000 in the much broader Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund at the beginning of the decade. Then, for exposure to equities outside the United States, you put another $50,000 into Vanguard’s Total International Stock Index Fund.
As of mid-December, your $100,000 would have grown to $109,334, though that is just $84,921 when you take inflation into account. Still pretty dismal, though it shows the importance of diversification even within a broad category like stocks.
Now, consider a much more realistic scenario, with 50 percent of the money in bonds. If the decade begins with $25,000 in each of the domestic and international stock funds and $50,000 in Vanguard’s Total Bond Market Index Fund, you end it with $145,619, or $112,971 in 2000 dollars.
That’s how retirees, with a fairly aggressive 50 percent chunk of the portfolio in stocks, might have fared if they had been hoarding some investments while living mostly off Social Security and a pension or annuity. (For those who were spending down a portfolio with this aggressive allocation, there is no salve except the hope that what they have left will continue to bounce back.)
But if you’re not yet retired, you were probably adding money to your portfolio throughout the decade. Let’s say you started with the same $100,000 and the identical 25/25/50 asset allocation from the previous scenario. Now, imagine that you added $1,000 a month and then rebalanced your account annually so that you began each new year with that original allocation.
The result? You ended up with $313,747, or $260,102 in January 2000 dollars. Hardly a lost decade at all.
Your own balance may be much different from this. But if you’re moderately affluent, reasonably diligent and began the decade in your 30s or 40s (or were a bit older and got a late start in getting serious about retirement savings), this scenario won’t be that far off.
It’s easier to hit that $1,000 monthly saving if you have an employer matching some of your contributions. And consistent saving depends in large part on avoiding unemployment, which hasn’t been easy.
Even if your income continues uninterrupted, you can’t lose your nerve either. Plenty of people take their money out of stocks and put it into cash when the stock market falls. Then, they don’t put it back in until long after the recovery begins.
This can cost you whole percentage points in annual returns, which add up to hundreds of thousands of dollars over a lifetime. Indeed, investors in the hot fund of the moment will often earn returns way lower than the fund’s ads proclaim, though Vanguard index fund investors tend to be more of the slow and steady type.
And it’s that lifetime that’s important. The recent focus on the past decade’s performance is misguided for all sorts of reasons.
First of all, 10 years is not a particularly long time horizon. Retirement investors may begin saving at 22 and have money in stocks at 82. People who open 529 college savings accounts upon the birth of a child will keep them open for at least two decades and possibly longer.
A decade is a particularly short period of time for anyone who will need the money at the end of it. If that’s the case, the majority of it probably shouldn’t be in stocks in the first place, which would make the 10-year S.& P. 500 return less relevant.
Finally, this particular decade happened to start at an enormously overvalued moment. According to data from the Yale economist Robert J. Shiller, as of January 2000, the 10-year S.& P. 500 price-earnings ratio stood at 43.77, a month removed from its record high.
As a result, a lot of the lost decade hand-wringing is merely a result of this coincidence of the calendar. The 10-year performance figures may not look like such a lost decade a year or two from now, when the tally begins in 2001 or 2002 and the S.& P. 500 was at much lower levels.
The real danger in the lost-decade rhetoric is that it could scare people away from stocks permanently. Again, the long term is what matters to most stock investors. And according to Vanguard, the S.& P. 500’s worst 45-year run, for the period ending in September 1974, produced an average annual return of 6.53 percent.
Many of us could live with that, but stocks may not do even that well for the next 45 years. Near the stock market’s nadir in 2009, Robert D. Arnott of Research Affiliates scared a number of readers half to death by noting in an article in The Journal of Indexes that from February 1969 to February 2009, investors in 20-year Treasury bonds outperformed the S.& P. 500.
Stocks have since pulled ahead again, but Mr. Arnott’s larger point still stands — that the reward you’re supposed to get for the added risk of investing in stocks can seem awfully elusive in some contexts.
No one knows which asset class will outperform the others over the next 10 (or 45) years. That’s why it’s important to invest in more than just stocks, and why a bad stretch for certain stocks may not matter as much as it first appears.
Few of us have the long-term investing prowess to pick the right moment for the right stocks. But persistence has its own rewards. Savers are never losers, even if some stocks have let us all down in the short term.


Addition by Dr. Morris to the above article:

There is advice, and then there is advice. There are articles, and then there are articles. Much advice and many articles are worth nothing. This advice and this article is worth your time.

I believe I was born as an investor, I started early and as of this moment, New Years 2010. Next to my faith, this is the important area of my life. This last decade, 2000-2010, has been the most difficult time of investing in my 80 years. I blame most of it on the Washington/world financial scene. The two Bushes tried to out do one another in terrible investment activity...a shame and disgrace for Republicans. Clinton, and now Obama, are typical democrats and the country will have trouble recovering.

Look in the mirror, those of you who have sight, and you will see the answer to your investment problem. I offer the following advice:
1. Conservatism is a way of life. If you are conservative in your thinking, you will be conservative in your investing, in your saving, in your lifestyle.
2. You will never be able to invest the money you have spent on worthless items.
Every dime is important and dimes make dollars and dollars take care of themselves. I started long ago investing 50 cents of every dollar I have ever
made, 25 cents in real estate, 25 cents in securities. If it were not for the
ludicrous taxes we pay local, state, federal and now, thanks to Obama and his
gang, we will be taxed on air, a World tax. Don't ever believe that the Federal
Reserve, FDIC, SEC, or your state officials are concerned about your financial welfare. They take care of the Paulsons, Goldman Sachs, Geithners, and the world financial wizards. You are on your own. These wealth management advisors, most stock brokers, are like any other type salesmen (car, shoes, real estate), in business to make a commission. Broker is a good word for them...they will help you go broke.
3.You will be called frugal, tight, eccentric. Dr. Franklin said it best, “A penny saved is a penny earned.” For eight decades now, I have kept a looseleaf notebook by my bed. Every night I write down everything I spent during the day. I am convinced this is the only way a person will ever get control of his money and his spending.
4. You cannot out give God. Everything about giving in God's word is reliable. Christ talked more about giving than he did about heaven. “I have been young, and now am old, I have not seen the righteous forsaken, nor his seed begging bread” (Psa 37:25).

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Key To Prosperity




I have made many trips around the world, traveled extensively through 157 countries, studied most of the large cities of the world. I have been amazed at the worlds great buildings such as the Taj Mahal in India built by a Mughal Emperor Shah Jahan in honor of his dead wife. The greatness of Windsor Castle in England, the York Cathedral, the beauty of Sacre Coeur Basilica in Paris, St. John the Divine in New York City, and even the capital of the great state of Texas. The difference in the building in a Cathedral, Church or Temple is that believers have given with faith. A national monument is usually built with taxes. Great homes and many landmarks are usually built with private funds from hard working individuals.


At one time, I was active in a great church. Magnificent beyond words to describe. Built by the free will giving of dedicated believers. The great pastor would say, “If I tell my people to jump in the fire I will smell clothes burning. If I tell my people to jump into the river I will hear water splash.” I thought this was great at the time but since realized he had enough ego to actually believe the members of that church gave, because of him, not as “unto God.” Another great radio preacher, who I enjoyed listening to, simply because of his brilliant mind, would always take up two offerings at each service. And his large congregation would clap their hands before each offering. He preached money more than anything else. He actually preached and I sincerely believed that he believed, that one would go to hell if not a tither. He preached over and over, that your surest form of worship is in giving of your means, giving all the tithes first fruits etc. I don't know how much was given at that church each week. But they gave many millions each year. All checks were made payable to the Pastor because it was his belief that the church members were responsible to him and he was responsible to God. I have heard him say, “It is my business if I take your money in my airplane and dump it into the ocean.” There are about as many far fetched ideas in giving to God as in many other denominational issues.


Jesus preached more on giving than anything else. Of his twenty-nine parables, sixteen are on giving. I truly believe you cannot out give God. I truly believe that you can give without loving but you cannot love without giving. I truly believe it is a personal matter, between you and God. I can say, without fear of contradiction, that the key to prosperity is giving. If a man is right with his giving, right with his pocket book, he is probably right about everything else.


The plan for Christian giving is given in Paul's second letter to the church at Corinth, “God loves a cheerful giver.” (2 Corinthians 9) You can be sure that God will direct you in your giving as well as your living if you have enough trust to do so. (Philippians 2:13). Faith is a verb and I truly believe that 90% of faith is just raw courage. Faith is action, based on belief sustained by confidence. We must have confidence in Him knowing that it is not law that dictates our giving but our trust in the Sovereignty of God. He knows our needs more than we do. And He knows how much He can trust us.


The children of Israel had been in slavery for over 400 years. They saw with their own eyes the deliverance of God. Leaving houses provided by their slave masters they dwelled in tents and these two and a half million people were forced to depend solely on God for their welfare. Almost immediately, slavery did not seem so harsh and they longed for the “cucumbers and melons” of Egypt. Almost immediately, their unbelief was shown in the worship of a gold calf. God has perfect accounting books, a perfect calculator. Because of their unbelief they died in the desert after wondering for 40 years, although at one time, they were within a short distance of the promised land. Look in the mirror and find the key to your prosperity!


God does not need our money. For every beast of the forest [is] mine, [and] the cattle upon a thousand hills. I know all the fowls of the mountains: and the wild beasts of the field [are] mine. If I were hungry, I would not tell thee: for the world [is] mine, and the fullness thereof. (Psalms 50:10-13) I am as convinced about my attitude of giving as I am convinced of my salvation that God expects us as Christians to happily give for His work. My greatest joy is to return to God most of what He has generously given to me. I truly believe that ten percent is the bare minimum. If it were required in the Old Testament, under law, surely we can do much better with grace. I am responsible to God for every penny I spend. William Booth, founder of the Salvation Army, at Christmas, so intent on not spending one dime more than necessary to greet the churches throughout the world, on his Christmas telegram just had one word, “others.” I do not give to lazy people, I do not give to organizations that do not spend wisely and honor God fully. (United Way, Red Cross, etc)


The Christian does not waste anything. Even Christ, fed the thousands from a small boys lunch which a loving mother had prepared for a small hungry boy, had His followers to pick up the baskets of scraps. In this day of credit cards when usury laws do not apply when you can be charged as much as 30% interest, I cannot imagine blood-bought, baptized, redeemed believers falling into satans clutches with death and buying things which you can easily live without. Your government, your banks, are intent on enslaving you. Through credit cards, mortgages and the greedy tax pickpocket ,many of you have voted for your enslavement.


Christians are taught that we are a new creation, we are the light and salt of the world. We are different from the world, different in our living, our giving, our saving, and even our spending. You can never invest what you have spent. Pennies make dollars and dollars take care of themselves, if you invest wisely. Don't mind the heathen calling you tight or frugal. We grow the plants to manufacture the paper and ink for our fiat paper currency. Out of thin air, the federal reserve takes this money and makes us greedy over it. There is nothing more dirty on God's earth than money. Paper bills, after being in circulation for some time have about every disease known to man on them. Yet, men will lie, cheat, and steal for dirty money. But, if the entire crust of the earth were gold, men would lie, cheat, and steal for a handful of dirt.


The key to our prosperity is in the control of our working, saving, spending and giving. Life is more than what we possess. God only had to say it one time, “love of money is the root of all evil.”(1 Timothy 6:10) I understand Mr. Madoff's office where he robbed his customers of sixty-five billion dollars was called the North Pole because it was white with cocaine powder and elicit sex. Mr. Madoff is now in prison like so many of his fellows who are consumed with greed. You can be sure of this, he will leave this world with empty hands, so did his associate Mr. Picower. So has every other tyrant of greed who had a false sense of prosperity. Remember, it is not what you have but what God has for you.